China claims it's a neutral mediator in
the war in Ukraine. It's not. It's
actively supporting Russia, openly
betrayed and less openly supplying vital
parts for Vladimir Putin's war machine.
But it's an unequal relationship. Russia
is in danger of becoming China's vassal
state, say analysts, with implications
for both countries. Relations weren't
always so close. Russia and China have
been on again, off-again partners for
decades. From conflicts back in the late
60s to where we are now, what they call
a no limits partnership, their
militaries cooperate increasingly
closely from just a few exercises
annually to 14 separate exercises last
year, like these joint naval maneuvers
in the Sea of Japan just last month.
It's a relationship that helps both
sides. China relies heavily on Russia
for military hardware. Over the last 5
years, more than 70% of China's military
imports have come from Russia,
especially jet engines for both
transport and bomber planes like this
aircraft here, but also missiles and
naval weapons and air defense systems.
What does Russia get in return? Well,
China is supplying Russia with what it
needs to build its war machine. The US
State Department estimates that 70% of
the machine tools and 90% of the micro
electronics that Russia imports come
from China. The West also believes the
Chinese are supplying engines, computer
chips, and parts, giving Russia the edge
in drone production in factories like
this one.
Russia's also benefiting from troops
sent from North Korea, something
tolerated by Beijing. At one point,
North Korea had 11 11,000 troops
deployed in one region, the Kursk
region, supporting Moscow's forces. But
it's trade that's made Russia so heavily
dependent on China since the war began.
And most crucially in oil and energy, as
this chart shows, the amount of oil
China has bought off Russia since the
war began has risen ever more steeply
between 2021 and 2024 exports jumping
from 25% to 43%. Contrast that with
China. Its share of imports coming from
Russia went up just 3% in 2021 to 5% in
2024. Trade between the two has risen by
2/3 since the beginning of the war.
Simply put, Russia depends on trade with
China more than any other country to
keep its sanctions hit wartime economy
afloat. One example makes the point.
Cars. In 2017, Russia imported just
18,000 cars from China. By 2024, that
number has jumped 57 times to 1.1
million. Out of every $100 that Russians
spend on foreignbuilt cars, $88 goes to
China. So why is all this happening?
Well, from Russia's point of view,
because it has to. It absolutely needs
China to dodge Western sanctions to prop
up its militarized economy and to supply
its war machine. From China's point of
view, it has Russia over a barrel and is
exploiting that on its own terms for all
it can, benefiting economically, but
also because the longer this war goes
on, the more divided the West and NATO
seem to become. China does not want a
world dominated by one power. Helping
Russia continue this war is helping
achieve that ambition.